(Hubei Daily) what will Wuhan look like in the next 36 years? Wuhan held Wuhan in 2049 (the Planning) seminar on prospective development strategy planning, outlining and depicting the beautiful future of Wuhan and looking for the future of Wuhan in the global perspective.
 
Objective: the third-tier world city
Wuhan in 2049 puts forward that Wuhan in the next 36 years will be a more competitive and sustainable world city.
At present, there are three tiers of world cities. The first-tier world cities are the cities which have greatest influence in the world and are also the generally accepted global economic, financial and cultural center, such as New York, London and Tokyo.
The second-tier world cities are the secondary world cities which have relatively bigger influences in the world and are typically the capital or economic center of the important countries, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Frankfurt and Sydney. Beijing and Shanghai of China are second-tier world cities or are trying to be members of this tier world cities.
The third-tier world cities are usually the regional important culture center with certain intercontinental influences, such as Rome, Copenhagen, Chicago, Osaka, Vancouver, Milan, Toronto, San Francisco, Munich, Mumbai and New Delhi and etc.
It is predicted that China will become the largest economy in the world in 2050. Hence, there be many core cities of China ranking among the world cities at that time. Wuhan, the center city in Central China and the expected national central city of China, is likely to be the world cwill ity.
Of course, Wuhan is far from the requirements of becoming a world city. Therefore, Wuhan in 2049 puts forward the hierarchical, phased and functional goal of Wuhan's becoming a world city.
Wuhan aims to become a third-tier world city and focuses on becoming the international gateway city of Asia-Pacific region.
Wuhan has to begin the fostering of the goal of becoming a world city after 2030.
Three major steps to become a world city
Based on the current industrial development of Wuhan and the future industrial structure development trend, Wuhan's goal of becoming a world city cannot be realized in just one step. Wuhan in 2049 puts forward the three-step strategy: becoming the regional central city first, then the national central city and finally the world city.
The first phase  Phase of growing into national central city
We will focus on developing Wuhan into central city in Central China which influences the city center and "1+8" city circle and has accelerated industry development and strengthened service by 2020.
In this phase, Wuhan will develop the core functions of modern logistics, trade and high-end manufacturing and the secondary functions of innovation and domestic transport portal.
The second phase  Phase of becoming mature national central city
Before 2030, Wuhan will expand its influence from "1+8" city circle to Mid-Yangtze River city cluster and will have rapidly developed productive service sector and regional transfer of manufacturing.
During this period, Wuhan will shift its core functions to the core productive service functions like technological innovation, regional financial center, agglomeration of Asia-Pacific headquarters and Asia-Pacific transport portal and improve its overall functions of trade, modern logistics and high-end manufacturing.
The third phase  Phase of fostering Wuhan into world city
Wuhan will expand its influence from Mid-Yangtze River city cluster to larger scope and form the industry pattern dominated by productive service sector and regional service for consumption by 2049.
Wuhan begins to shift its core functions to functions of cultural concentration, international transport portal, headquarters of international enterprises and financial innovation and so on which are more sustainable soft power.
 
Industry evolution: the tertiary industry becomes the core force driving economic growth
We can see from the industrial structure evolution process of international big cities that the industry interweaving period (with roughly equal proportion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry) will usually occur in the middle-later industrialization phase and Wuhan is right at this phase. Selection of industrial development path at this time decides the future development mode and direction of city. In Wuhan in 2049, we analyzed the industrial development mode of important central cities and provincial capitals of China. The development mode mainly includes the following two types:
The first is re-industrialization mode which is represented by Hefei, Changsha and Zhengzhou. The industry develops faster than that of the tertiary industry in the early and middle phase of industrialization and overrides again after certain period of parallel development of the secondary and tertiary industries and the city remains as the industry base.
The second is national central city mode which is represented by Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. The tertiary industry keeps growing after overriding the industry, the industrial structure is transformed into the pattern dominated by service sector and the tertiary industry becomes the core force driving economic growth. Wuhan in 2049 chooses the second development mode—the development mode of becoming national central city.
Water resources rank at first in China
Wuhan is known as "city with hundreds of lakes" and half of the city is surrounded by the water. The water area accounts for 1/4 of the area of Wuhan and ranks at first among all major cities in China. This is unique.
However, the water area of Wuhan reduced by nearly 50% in 60 years from 1950 to 2010. 17 lakes in main urban area of Wuhan were filled and occupied in recent 20 years. Wuhan in 2049 makes it clear that establishing relatively stable and reasonable ecological security pattern will be the priority in new round of Wuhan's development.
It proposed that the ecological bottom line must be kept in Wuhan's development and 1/5 of Wuhan's land should be the preserved area in which any forms of development and construction is prohibited.
The Planning puts forward construction of Wuhan's ecological blue-green network by focusing on Wuhan's scenery characteristics. "Blue network" refers to connecting the lakes and rivers and building 11 blue waterways, including the waterway of Han River - East Lake - Yanxi Lake - Yandong Lake, the waterway of Houguan Lake - Nantaizi Lake - Huangjia Lake - Tangxun Lake, the waterway of Guanlian Lake - Lu Lake - Futou Lake, the waterway of Fu River - East Lake - Tangxun Lake - Lu Lake and the waterway of Jinyin Lake - Houguan Lake - Chen Lake.
"Green Network" refers to building 11 outskirt greenways and 50 country parks and planning 24 urban ecological parks.
People in Wuhan can ride to a beautiful lake in 15 minutes and walk to a green park in 10 minutes to feel the unique charm of rivers, lakes and great Wuhan by 2049.
Demographic dividend of 18 million
It is generally accepted that China will usher in the inflection point of demographic dividend. The United Nations predict that China's population will peak around 2025 and continuously decline from then on.
According to data of National Bureau of Statistics, last year, China's working age population showed absolute decline for the first time in a considerable period of time. Cai Fang, Director of Institute of Population and Labor Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS), predicts that inflection point of demographic dividend of China has occurred in 2013 and the working-age population will not increase in 2013 and decline from 2013 on.
Will Wuhan face the social problems of "not getting rich before it gets old"? The studies of China Academy of Urban Planning & Design show that Wuhan currently has good demographic dividend and total population of Wuhan will continue to grow.
Wuhan had permanent residents of 9,785,000 in 2010 and is the city with largest population in three provinces in Central China. It is predicted that Wuhan will have total population of 13 million to 14 million by 2030 and 16 million to 18 million by 2049.

"Talents dividend" is particularly prominent among demographic dividend of Wuhan. At present, Wuhan has the second largest number of colleges in China, following Beijing. Wuhan had nearly one million students and postgraduates in 2010, ranking at first in the world.
In the study report of World Bank—China in 2030: Constructing Modern, Harmonious and Creative Society with High-income, Wuhan and Beijing (IT and software service), Shanghai (finance and engineering service), Shenzhen (logistics and business service) and Chengdu (Aviation) are called as cities "becoming generally accepted knowledge and innovation center of China".
At present, Wuhan has total population of about 10 million and more than 80% them live in the main urban area. However, area of the main urban area only accounts for more than 50% of the total construction land area of Wuhan. In the future 36 years, Wuhan's population will increase at least by 6 million. Can the narrow main urban areas accommodate so many people? Wuhan in 2049 points out that population in main urban area of Wuhan will further increase by 2030 and begin to decline in 2049. At that time, population in main urban area of Wuhan will be 7.7 million to 8.5 million.
Currently, Wuhan's new city area does not have much population. This will last until 2030. Since then, population in Wuhan's new city area will rapidly increase and override that of main urban area in 2049, being 8.3 million to 9.5 million.
Wuchang Railway Station can be turned into "Central Railway Station"
Wuhan is located in the "centermost point" of China and has prominent advantages in railway, waterway and highway and air transportation development. World cities all have highly efficient traffic network. Wuhan in 2049 points out that Wuhan must become the aviation and high-speed railway hub in Central China in 2049.
Aviation hub is of first importance to Wuhan, an inland city. Wuhan in 2049 proposes that Wuhan can consider constructing Tianhe Airport T4 Terminal and the Third Runway and developing Jiangxia or East Lake Second Airport, Yangluo Small Airport in addition to striving for positioning as national portal airport and more international airline and expanding the flight zone.
In the era of high-speed railway, Wuhan has unique advantages in developing railway and subway transport. In the future, three high-speed railways connecting the south and the north, the east and the west and the northwest and the southeast of China, namely Beijing-Guangzhou High-speed Railway, Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu High-speed Railway and Xian-Wuhan-Fuzhou High-speed Railway, will pass through Wuhan and Wuhan will have three major high-speed railway stations: Wuhan, Hankou and Hanyang. Wuhan in 2049 puts forward that Wuhan can build two railway and subway loops. Of which, the urban railway loop is about 80km and connects all railway, urban rail and most of subways. This loop is like YamaNote-Line in Japan.
In addition, Wuhan may draw lessons from trans-city railway of Berlin to renovate the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway Wuhan section and make it become the urban railway channel which connects Hankou Railway Station, Wuchang Railway Station and Wuhan No.2 Airport. It takes ten years for Berlin to build Central Railway Station. Wuhan can also plot its own "Central Railway Station" and transform and upgrade Wuchang Railway Station.
In light of construction of city traffic, Wuhan in 2049 proposes to draw lessons from Seoul of South Korea and build subway loop and implement reform of public transport system.
The envisioned Wuhan subway loop is about 34km and connects Hankou Railway Station, Hanzheng Street, Wuchang Ancient City, Zhongnan, Hongshan Square, Shahu, Wuhan 606 Building, Xudong and Wuhan Tiandi.
After the envisioned Wuhan public transport system reform, the pattern of competition among three major public transport running companies will be formed and 15 to 20 tram or BRT lines with total length of up to 200km will be built in the main urban area. Wuhan in 2049 proposes that Wuhan should gradually reduce construction of viaducts, shift the focus on improving the pedestrian environment and gradually limit the use of motor-driven vehicles.
 
"1+4" urban layout
Wuhan in 2049 points out that Wuhan will present "1+4" layout in the future.
"1" refers to the core "main urban area" of Wuhan, "4" refers to the four "secondary areas" in the periphery of Wuhan. They are "Airport-neighboring secondary area", "Port-neighboring secondary area", "Optics Valley secondary area" and "Automobile City secondary area"
The main urban area is the area within the third ring and covers land of about 530m2. It is the central area of future Wuhan and also the main space carrier for Wuhan to construct the international service city.
Wuhan will develop "vibrant central city" in this area. In the future, the population of the main urban area will be limited at about 7 million and ninety percent of the industrial enterprises will be relocated outside Wuhan and about sixty percent of the employment opportunities will be in the main urban area. The night consumption will account for no less than 30% of the total consumption. Riverbanks of Yangtze River and Han River will be developed into the core of the main urban area and Jiangnan and Jiangbei urban center will be built in the future. Meantime, four secondary city centers in Wangjiadun, Sixin, Luxiang and Yangchu Lake will be developed.
At present, London has such five major secondary areas as the "east", "west", "south", "north" and "central" area and Sydney has ten zones. Wuhan's four major "secondary areas" are similar to this. "Airport-neighboring secondary area" covers Huangpi and Dongxihu Districts and airport-neighboring industry zone and Wujiashan urban industry zone, Panlong Lake and Jinyin Lake New City and Qianchuan integrated urban area will be the focus of construction. "Port-neighboring secondary area" covers Xinzhou and Hongshan Districts and Yangluo Port-neighboring Industry Zone, Wuhan Shihua Industry Zone and Zhucheng integrated urban area will be the focus of construction. "Optics Valley secondary area" covers East Lake Development Zone, Hongshan District and Jiangxia District and East Lake Technology New City and Tangxun Lake New City will be the focus of construction. "Automobile City secondary area" covers Zhuankou, Caidian, Hannan and Jiangxia Districts and Zhuankou automobile industry zone, Taizi Lake New City and Caidian, Hannan integrated urban areas will be the focus of construction (Yan Yuntao, Xu Yun)
 
[Wuhan Elements]
Competitiveness: such four major centers as national innovation, trade, finance, high-end manufacturing centers
Five major functions: international transport gateway, agglomeration area of headquarters of Asia-Pacific enterprises, financial center, technological innovation center and multicultural center
Five major elements: vibrant, efficient, green, livable and inclusive
 
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